President Hu - Who made him leader?
There is an interesting article in todays’s Independent blaming China for the failure of the Copenhagen climate summit. The article quotes a source who was supposedly in the room when the heads of state were drafting the document who says:
“If China had not been in that room you would have had a deal which would have had everyone popping champagne corks…..”
“The Chinese were happy as they’d win either way. If the process collapsed they’d win because they don’t have to do anything and they know the rich countries will get the blame.
“If the deal doesn’t collapse because everyone is so desperate to accommodate them that they water it down to something completely meaningless, they get their way again. Either way they win. I think all the other world leaders knew that by that stage and were just furious that they couldn’t do anything about it.”
Why am I not surprised?
Protestors? - pah!
China was admitted to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in December 2001 after the United States dropped it’s veto. Since that time trade with China has grown very quickly and the Chinese economy has grown massively. The generally accepted view is that China is now OK as it has accepted capitalism. This is wrong. The regime in power in China today is not substantially different from the regime which drove tanks over unarmed protesters in Tiananmen Square just two years before being admitted to the WTO.
The West too often confuses democracy with capitalism, they are not the same. It is possible to have a democratic government that is socialist. It is certainly possible to have a capitalist government which is non-democratic and China is the proof of this.
Both China and the West have gained from the flow of trade but we should consider that, having now allowed so much industry to move to China, we have become reliant on an authoritarian regime which cares for nothing but perpetuating it’s own existence. We should also keep this in mind when businessmen and political leaders talk of the necessity of allowing the free flow of trade to countries where there is “competitive advantage”. This competitive advantage is, very often, the absence of political rights, civil rights and the rule of law.
China may have legitimate reasons for not being able to commit to the climate change targets discussed in Copenhagen but it’s impossible to tell. The Chinese regime is not elected and therefore illegitimate and cannot be said to represent the views of the Chinese people. When one deals with regimes such as China one must accept that their word is worth nothing.
During the negotiations between the United States and the Soviet Union to limit Nuclear Forces Ronald Regan frequently used the phrase “Trust, but verify”. United States president, Barack Obama, seemed to understand this when, during a speech at Copenhagen he appeared to upset the Chinese by implying that verification was key to any agreement. The fact that this was mentioned caused the Chinese representatives to throw a hissy fit and refuse to attend various meetings.
Send in the tanks!
And that’s another thing, China too often uses tantrums as a negotiating tactic. We are told by Chinese watchers that this anger is related to the difference in culture. Perhaps it is. Perhaps the Chinese fly off the handle so often because they are not used to having to justify themselves.
I wonder how the Chinese regime would have responded to the demonstrators in Copenhagen? Rather than explaining their position perhaps they would simply have sent in the tanks.
This should give us pause for thought.
Photography
Santa Claus in Brazil – Illusion and Reality
Tags: agricultural production, Amazon rainforest, “Brazil takes off”, banks, Barack Obama, Bolsa Familia, Brazil, Brazil Russia India China, Brazilians, BRIC, Copenhagen, currency, development, favelas, government indifference, hidden camera footage, inflation, inoculations, interest rates, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Lula, offshore oil, Papai Noel, poor families, presal, president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva), Rio de Janeiro, school, stock markets, The Economist, underwear, Violence, wads of cash, Workers Party
Brazil Takes Off
The following is the first article from our corespondent in Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Lula (the nickname of Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) is on a roll. He will complete his second and final term in office next year, basking in adulation both at home and abroad. He was everywhere at Copenhagen, schmoozing with world leaders from China, India, America … anybody who really mattered. He has an 80% popularity rating at home, and, according to Barack Obama, “He’s the man!”
It is hard to see his smiling, round and bearded face at this time of year without thinking about Papai Noel. After all, under his leadership Brazil has finally “emerged”. In spite of the global economic crisis, its economy is booming, its currency and stock markets are near all time highs, and the world is finally paying attention. The Economist magazine recently displayed a cover entitled “Brazil takes off” and the BRIC (Brazil – Russia – India – China) acronym has become one of the foundations of current day economic terminology. The future is even more encouraging: Brazil’s potential for growth in agricultural production is one of the highest n the world (even without damaging more of the Amazon rainforest), and a recent massive offshore oil find called the “presal” holds out the promise of major income flows for many years to come.
Lula's no Papai Noel
It hasn’t been all luck; Brazil’s Papai Noel can indeed claim a great deal of credit. When the former machine operator and his Workers Party came to power in 2002, in spite of fears to the contrary, they sensibly continued the liberal economic policies of the preceding government, but also introduced a range of policies to better the plight of the Brazilian poor. The Bolsa Familia, a monthly allowance to poor families who keep their children in school and their medical inoculations up to date, has been credited with allowing millions of Brazilians to move into the “lower middle class”. Sales of consumer goods, from refrigerators to TVs to small cars have exploded in recent years and the malls are packed this Christmas. To counter the economic crisis, the government has invested billions in affordable housing and infrastructure projects. Brazilians have a sense of pride and confidence about the future that has been lacking until recently (in everything other, of course, than the country’s prowess in football).
And yet … so much of the optimism seems to be based on an illusion. Some of the signs are glaring. This government, like those before it, has made little progress in improving the abysmal state of public education and health care. Violence and crime remain rampant. The favelas (slums) of Rio de Janeiro at times resemble war zones, with invading police units facing drug gangs armed with equal or superior fire power. Public infrastructure, especially in the north of the country, is totally inadequate and a major impediment to development. Politicians at all levels are assumed to be corrupt. Recent hidden camera footage shown on national television, of politicians stuffing wads of cash from contractors into their underwear and socks, has confirmed existing perceptions (and provided enormous scope for satirists and cartoonists).
Upon closer inspection, it becomes clear that Papai Noel isn’t quite the altruistic benefactor he seems to be. What he gives so generously and publicly with one hand, he quietly takes away with the other. Brazil is one of most highly taxed countries in the world. Yes, the expensive toys of the middle and upper class, such as imported luxury cars and large LCD TVs, cost two to five times as much as elsewhere. But, far more importantly, many struggling Brazilians must spend excessive portions of their income on drugs not covered by or available from the public health system, at prices that include some 30-40% of government tax. Likewise many of the basic food items sold in Brazilian shops and supermarkets have prices inflated by excessive taxes.
Brazil has some of the nicest people, finest music, and most beautiful beaches in the world, but it is a long way from being a paradise, even at Christmas.