Posts Tagged ‘“credit crunch”

20
Jul
10

Bankers, Regulators and law makers “stumble” on a bargain

Lord Levene - Gets his hands on the branches

Levene - Can't wait to get his hands on the branches

It seems that the Bankers are still lining their pockets and this time they have rowed in regulators and law makers from the House of Lords.

Lord Levene, the chairman of the Lloyds insurance market, is to create a new high street bank to be floated on AIM and initially funded by £50m from City institutions including Invesco and F&C. The bank will then issue shares to gain more funds and expand rapidly to acquire other businesses including Northern Rock’s state-owned “good bank”. Not the bad one, mind you, that is to be left for the tax payer.

I heard Lord Levene on the radio a week or so ago  who said that he considered that the High Street banking business could do very well but an article in The Independent newspaper quotes Neil Saunders, of the DataMonitor consultancy, as saying “All banks face apathy in terms of switching behaviour….It takes an awful lot to get people to change bank.”

No problem, Lord Levene has thought of that and plans to simply buy up the 600 branches that Lloyds Banking Group had been ordered to sell following its state rescue.

Lord Levin obviously spotted the chance to make some money as did half the regulators and House of Lords.

One has to wonder who it was who decided that Lloyds should be ordered to sell the 600 branches and whether any of those involved in Lord Levine’s new bank had any involvement such as the “non-executive directors” of the new bank Sir David Walker (former official of the Treasury and Bank of England and deputy chairman of Lloyds bank), Lord McFall (chaired the House of Commons’ inquiry into the banking crisis) or Charlie McCreevy (former EU commissioner). Presumably these honourable men merely spotted a chance which came about coincientally following thier decision to force Lloyds to sell its branches. One can imagine them around the board room able: “Buy up the 600 branches? By Jove, never thought of that!”

The article in The Independent says that “executives will be appointed after the flotation”. It seems odd to wait until after the flotation to appoint executives but perhaps the new bank will be such a money spinner that they could employ any old fool to run it. If past performance is any indicator of future results then they probably will though it is not known if Sir Fred is still available.

Lovely Jubbly as del boy would say.

08
Apr
10

ignorance of asset price inflation reveals Brown’s incompetence

Gordon "Slopey Shoulders" Brown

Gordon "Slopey Shoulders" Brown

This morning I listened to John Humphrys interview British Prime Minister Gordon brown on BBC Radio 4′s Today program. Quite a good interview, Humphrys pushed Brown fairly well.

Humphrys tried to pin the Prime Minister down on a couple of points. He posited that while Gordon Brown was Chancellor he had bragged endlessly about prudent stewardship of the British economy claiming that he had “abolished boom and bust”. This false promise had encouraged everyone to borrow on the assumption that the economy was in safe hands. So much so that this led the the economic mess in which we now find ourselves.

Mr. Brown’s response to this was that previous “busts” had been caused by high inflation and that Brown had not let inflation get out of control. He claimed that the credit crunch had been caused by property loans being packaged up into derivative financial instruments where the risk could not be easily assessed.

Gordon is TALKING BOLLOCKS!

If one reads The Economist one discovers that the generally accepted view of the cause of the credit crunch was low interest rates.Yes, the impenetrable derivatives exacerbated the situation but the cause was cheap credit which was made available by the likes of Gordon Brown (as UK Chancellor) and Alan Greenspan (as chairman of the America Federal Reserve).

Cheap credit might normally give rise to inflation but China became a member of the World Trade Organisation in 2001 allowing it to supply cheap products to the developed world keeping high street inflation low. Note that inflation stayed low not because of Brown and Greenspan’s low interest rates but in spite of them.
But the cheap money that Brown and Greenspan were making available had to go somewhere so it went into fueling aasset price bubbles in equity and property.

This is not the reasoning of one lone blogger but a précis of the opinion of main stream economists as reported in The Economist newspaper. However, speaking personally, I recall that around the year 2001 the silicon chip maker ARM was trading at a Price Earnings Ration which would mean it would take a thousand years to pay back it’s offer price! If I could see this was absurd how did the situation evade the Chancellor of a major world economy? If taxi drivers could see that providing mortgages to people for more than the price of their home without checking their income was reckless why did this escape Gordon Brown?

It is worth noting that The Economist had been warning of the asset price bubbles for years before the credit crunch arrived. If they knew then Mr. Brown should have known. So when Mr. Brown claims that he kept inflation low he is either incompetent or deliberately misleading the general public.

I suggest that Gordon Brown is like any number of technocrats who are amazingly knowledgeable about a subject but have no judgement or understanding. Mr. Brown read of the mistakes made with inflation in the past, learnt the accepted remedy and then blindly applied this remedy without once stepping back and seeing the enormous bubble in property and share prices.

Mr. Brown is like some bureaucratic ticket collector, deaf to the beseeching cries of the passengers, he insists on following rules and clipping everyone’s tickets while the train careers across a cliff.

Mr. Humphrys pointed out this morning that the stock market valuation for The Royal Bank of Scotland had grown larger than the UK economy. Even with this alarm bell the size of the Mount Everest Mr. Brown did not think that there had been any indication of the impeding disaster.

This morning, on Radio 4′s Today program, Gordon Brown was TALKING BOLLOCKS!

Even during the boom years Gordon Brown was spending more than the exchequer was raising in tax. The Budget deficit in 2007 was 2% of GDP! If he was borrowing in the good years then what on earth did he think he would do in the bad years? The truth is that this arrogant fool thought that he was so clever that he had ensured that never more would there be bad years. Now we have the bad years  New Labour have  resorted to the same tactic as Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe – they are printing money which in turn is devaluing the pound.

Gordon Brown has presided over a decade in which the United Kingdom has morphed from a leading developed country to a major debtor nation. The UK has never defaulted on it’s debt before but now there is talk of the UK losing it’s triple A credit rating meaning that investors consider default a possibility.

That this moron considers that his record shows prudence  and competence only serves to underline that he is not fit to be in government let alone Prime Minister.

If readers are undecided on which party would be best placed to lead us out of the economic mess then consider that judgement and understanding will be necessary and Gordon Brown has neither. Also consider that, as imperfect as Western democracy is, the one advantage it has is the ability to throw out a bunch of leaders who have messed up.

New Labour and Gordon Brown especially have messed up big time and should be thrown out by the British electorate!

17
May
09

General election now! – Sign the petition

I have been mulling over the expenses scandal currently bubbling away in the British press and it seems to me that this is the straw that broke the camels back. The expenses scandle is the last in a long stream of betrayals by our leaders and specifically by New Labour. It is time for a general election. (See petition information below).

New Labour came to power promising an end to the sleaze that defined the fag end of the last Tory government. Tony Blair portrayed himself as embracing an innovative vision of The United Kingdom and promulgated a bold modern vision of the future of the UK.

MPs who tried to stop you seeing their expenses

MPs who tried to stop you seeing their expenses

However, it quickly became apparent that the cardinal attribute of New Labour was not vision but spin. One after another New Labour ministers proved themselves corrupt and were dismissed from office only to be brought back in once the fuss had died down.

New Labour policies turned out to be the wholesale adoption of Thatcherism but, as with all converts, the policies were embraced as a doctrine and without understanding or judgement. Privatisations continued and New Labour became the bitch of big business.

Tony Blair began hobnobbing with the super rich and power went to his head. At the frenzied height of New Labour devotion to hyper-capitalism he tried to introduce super casinos. That a Labour government should consider the massive expansion of gambling in this country when the only people calling for it were greedy American business men beggars belief but by this time he was so far gone he could not see further than the Gordon Brown’s balance sheet.

When George Bush decided to go to war with Iraq Blair’s dragged us in too. The Islamist terrorism unleashed the Big Brother tendency that is never far from the minds of any Labour government. New laws were introduced to detain people without trial, CCTV became almost ubiquitous

The credit crunch brought claims from our leaders that this was a global phenomena that had little to do with their policies ignoring the frequent articles in newspapers such as The Economist describing the dangerous asset price bubble which was being fueled by cheap money and would eventually burst.

When ordinary people protested against the bankers in London the police responded with highly questionable tactics such as kettling and casual violence which may have left one man dead. Yet our leaders supported the outrageous tactics and trotted out the usual platitudes about violent demonstrators.

Luckily the widespread use of video technology by the general public revealed that the violence was mainly perpetrated by the police.

Now we learn that those we trust with the leadership of our country are fiddling their expenses like so many seedy second hand car salesmen.

On The BBC, Radio 4 program Any Questions this week it was suggested that the British people use the upcoming European elections to withhold votes from the major parties. Our leadership on the panel showed the depth of their depravity once again by attempting to scare the public with the spectre of racism and erroneously implying that this meant a vote for the BNP.

Lord Falkner went on to complain that it was a tragedy that New Labour would be judged on the expenses story and that this was a distraction when more important issues were at stake.

Lord Falkner is Talking Bollocks!

There can be no more important issue than whether our leaders are trustworthy. Their policies and promises mean nothing if the are prepared to waive aside their probity and obligations for a few thousand pounds.

While preaching prudence our leaders have led us into the worst economic crisis for decades. They led us into an illegal war that caused the deaths of thousands and severely damaged Britain’s reputation abroad. They continue to introduce ever more draconian laws which erode our civil liberties and they encourage the police to suppress protest using methods not dissimilar to those found in Zimbabwe.

Now we hear that they have been fiddling their expenses.

During the Any Questions program Susan Kramer, MP, suggested that we need a general election. She is right. The British people must be given the chance to decide whether their representatives deserve the confidence and the responsibility with which they are entrusted.

We need a General election now.

But don’t stop there!!!!!

Sign the petition on the Downing Street web site:  

http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/GoToCountryNow/

 

Matt - The Daily Telegraph

Matt - The Daily Telegraph

23
Jan
09

Financial Crisis – Putting it in perspective.

This graphic below shows the market values of a group of banks before the credit crunch and after. Phew!
 
bmc1

The original graphic was from an email circulating and perports to come from JP Morgan. I moved the bubbles around to fit my blog better but the sizes and data remain the same. I published this yesterday and had immediate feedback from a enineer friend pointing out that the JPM graphic misrepresents the data. In the graphic below the same numbers are represented as circles. However it is the circle’s height, not it’s areas, which corresponds to the figures.

A pedant might argue that this is true of my bar chart above and that I have compounded the problem by making mine 3 dimensional. However, I think my representation is readily understood whereas the bubble version is misleading.

Perhaps the fact that a leading bank, such as JP Morgan, cannot even create simple graphics without misrepresenting the data goes some way to explain why the banks are in such a mess.

Bank Market Capitilisation

Bank Market Capitilisation

16
Jan
09

Sub Prime

Below is a link to a Powerpoint presentation with as good an explanation of the current financial mess as any.

sub-prime1

16
Jan
09

Gordon Brown backtracks once again

When this credit crisis really got going “Hank” Paulson, The United States Treasury Secretary created a US$ 700 Billion plan to buy up the “toxic debt”. The idea being that the U.S. government would take on the debt freeing the banks from the risk. The banks would then be able to resume lending. The U.S. government wouldn’t necessarily lose out as not all the toxic debt would default and they may even make a modest profit.

American congressmen didn’t like the idea of risking a lot of government money and it took two attempts to get their plan through congress.

Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, then started lecturing everyone about how what was really necessary was to inject liquidity into the banking system. His plan was to give the banks loads of cash so that they could start lending again. Brown postured that he was some kind of economics guru and strutted around telling the world that they should follow his lead. Without too much publicity The Americans changed tack and started giving the $US 700 Billion to the banks rather than buying up the bad debt.

On the 14th January The Daily Telegraph ran a story stating:

“The (UK) Treasury is understood to have asked the investment bank Credit Suisse to draw up a detailed plan for the logistics of creating a bad bank, in a bid to restore confidence in the sector and to kick-start lending to consumers and businesses.”

In effect Brown is admitting that, once again, he was wrong and he will now need even more money to start buying up the bad debt just as Hank Poulson had originally planned.

I am reminded of Gordon Brown’s boast that he had abolished boom and bust. Gordon Brown’s ego is only paralleled by that of Tony Blair. They both strut around the world telling everyone what to do and, infuriatingly, seem oblivious of the fact that everything they touch turns to shit.

The folk lore is that, though Brown is a hopeless buffoon, his one saving grace is that he understands economics.

HE DOES NOT!

It was Brown who helped screw our pensions, it was Brown who let property and stock inflation run out of control and it was Brown who dithered for months before bailing out Northern Rock.

He talks Bollocks and should step down.

But don’t stop there! Sign the petition on the Down Street web site:

http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/please-go/

21
Nov
08

Gordon Brown Angry? – I’m bloody livid!

Gordon Brown has said that he is angry with the U.S. Banks as they had taken risks that he knew anything about.

Mr. Brown may not have noticed but the British public knew that it was possible to get a mortgage by lying about their income. We knew we could get a mortgage for 120% of the value of our property. We knew that thousands of companies were sending unsolicited loan approval letters through the post. We knew that our credit card companies kept sending us unsolicited cheques to cash. The traders in The City were dealing the new derivatives so they knew. Any reader of The Economist knew that an asset price bubble was forming affecting housing and stocks.

It seems the only man in the UK who did not know what was going on was the man who was paid to know.

He’s angry? I’m livid that this bloody know nothing is now Prime Minister.

Gordon Brown is TALKING BOLLOCKS!

But don’t stop there! Sign the Downing Street petition: http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/please-go/




谈胡说

Images

In the Red

chairs

the meeting place

trees & sky

runner

worthing beach

east croydon station

jen colin & devon in chip shop

jump

legs

More Photos
Watch videos at Vodpod and other videos from this collection.

 

July 2010
M T W T F S S
« Jun    
 1234
567891011
12131415161718
19202122232425
262728293031  

Enter your email address to subscribe toTalking Bollocks and receive notifications of new posts by email.